Staff Reports
In a surprising twist of events, a recent poll conducted by The New York Times and Sierra College has revealed that former President Donald Trump is currently leading President Joe Biden in five out of six pivotal swing states. Voters in Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Michigan have expressed a preference for Trump in the 2024 election, with margins varying from three to 10 points. The only exception is Wisconsin, where Biden maintains a slight lead over Trump. This shift suggests that Biden's "multiracial and multigenerational coalition" is showing signs of fracture, with voters increasingly perceiving the country as heading in the wrong direction.
Further strengthening Trump's lead, a separate Bloomberg News and Morning Consult poll shows him ahead in an average of several swing states. In Arizona, Michigan, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Trump leads Biden by a margin of 47% to 43%. Michigan is the only state where the candidates are tied, and Biden has a small lead in Nevada by three points. It's important to note that Trump secured victory in 2016 with the support of several of these swing states, including Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, while Biden won all six states in the 2020 election.
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The poll also reveals a significant decrease in support for Biden among traditionally supportive groups. His lead among Hispanics has diminished to single digits, and his advantage among voters under 30 has dwindled to just one percentage point. However, the most notable finding is the increase in Trump's support among African Americans, rising to 22%, compared to the meager 8% he received in 2020. If this upward trend continues, Trump could potentially secure the highest level of support from black voters in decades.
If these poll results hold true, Trump may be positioned to secure a substantial 300 electoral college votes in the upcoming election, surpassing the 270 required for victory. Voters are increasingly perceiving Biden as too old and have concerns about his mental acuity and policies, while they view Trump's policies as more advantageous. The poll, conducted between October 22, 2023, and November 3, 2023, surveyed 3,662 registered voters in six swing states and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 1.8 points. It's noteworthy that all content produced by the Daily Caller News Foundation is available without charge to any legitimate news publisher capable of reaching a wide audience.
