Staff Reports
Arizona has officially shifted its political landscape from a toss-up to leaning Republican, as Fox News updated its Power Rankings just days before the impending showdown between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. This move comes on the heels of a new poll from Data Orbital that reveals Trump leading the Democrat challenger in the Grand Canyon State by a significant margin—49.7 percent to 41.9 percent. The enthusiasm for Trump appears to be contagious, as Republican U.S. Senate candidate Kari Lake is also climbing ahead of her opponent, Democrat Rep. Ruben Gallego, by a slim, yet thrilling, margin of 45.2 to 44.5 percent.
The poll, conducted from October 26 to 28, surveyed 550 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.26 percent, which suggests a clear signal: in the minds of Arizonans, Donald Trump is the undisputed favorite heading into the election. This isn’t just a fluke either; Trump has consistently outperformed Harris in seven of the eight high-quality polls conducted in Arizona since August. His lead on immigration—an undeniably hot topic in a border state—has Trump ahead by a staggering 10 points, proving that voters aren’t shy about their priorities.
🚨New Update for 30 Oct. PA, AZ, MI, NC remain lean. GA tilt GOP with NV tilt DEM. WI remains a blow-out🔥 pic.twitter.com/wxNe9yZo7v
— Chuck Armstrong (@ChuckArmstron11) October 30, 2024
Historically, Arizona has been considered a pivotal battleground in presidential races, but recent dynamics are painting a different picture. A Wall Street Journal survey earlier this autumn revealed that a whopping 25 percent of Arizona voters listed immigration as their top concern, a point that Republicans seem more than eager to capitalize on. Given that the state shares a border with Mexico, the focus on immigration is not just political rhetoric; it’s a matter that resonates deeply with constituents who want safety and security for their communities.
As for Trump, the latest forecasts show that while he holds a slight 230-226 lead in the Electoral College, the battlegrounds remain fiercely competitive. Polls are indicating a general rightward shift among voters, with Arizona potentially behaving like an early bellwether for what could be a wider Republican resurgence in 2024. New Hampshire isn’t far behind in the race, where another poll has Trump ahead of Harris as well, marking a remarkable trend resonating through multiple states.
For Republican insiders, the confidence is building. Political Director James Blair remarked that Republicans are attracting more low- and mid-propensity voters—those who often sit on the edges of the election process—compared to Democrats. With an increasingly vibrant base and substantial gains in registered voters since the last election, evidence suggests Arizona is not just leaning Republican; it could very well be preparing for what’s needed to flip the script back to red this time around.
