Staff Reports
A recent survey of likely voters in Virginia shows that President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are tied in the upcoming election. The poll, conducted by the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College, revealed that both candidates garnered 42% support among Virginians. When other potential candidates were included in the survey, Biden held a slight advantage over Trump, with 40% to his 38%. However, this difference is within the poll’s margin of error.
This signifies a significant shift in Virginia, a state that favored Biden by 10 points in the 2020 election. Trump’s improved showing in this poll, compared to a previous one from the same college, suggests that the political landscape in Virginia may be evolving. Despite Biden’s previous strong performance in the state, the current survey indicates that the gap between the two candidates has narrowed considerably.
Biden and Trump tied in Virginia putting blue state ‘in play’: Roanoke College Poll https://t.co/aPh6Lc7GI0 via @dcexaminer
— Bruno Schmalhofer (@BSchmalhofer1) May 29, 2024
Notably, the survey also found that only 2% of likely voters are undecided, while 14% expressed their intention to vote for a non-Biden or non-Trump candidate in a two-way race. In a five-way race, 20% of voters indicated that they would opt for a non-Biden or non-Trump candidate.
The poll interviewed 711 likely voters in Virginia between May 12 and May 21. It identified the economy as the most important issue for participants, followed by immigration, abortion, foreign affairs, and crime.
The Republican victory in the 2021 gubernatorial election, as well as the Trump campaign’s optimism about reclaiming states like Virginia, suggests that the political tides may be shifting. The poll results, within the margin of error of previous polls, indicate that Trump’s influence in Virginia has grown, potentially making the state a competitive battleground in future elections.
Moreover, the survey revealed that a higher percentage of participants viewed the Trump years as mostly good for the country compared to the Biden years. This sentiment, coupled with Biden’s low job approval rating, signals potential trouble for the current administration.
Overall, the survey highlights a potential turnaround in Virginia’s political landscape, with implications not only for the state but also for national politics.
