Staff Reports
The Iowa Caucus: A Cautionary Tale of Weather, Will, and Weighing Waited Words
Well, well, well, the Iowa caucus sure did kick up quite the political storm, and not just because of the 5-foot snowdrifts! The final RealClearPolitics polling average had former President Donald Trump leading the pack with 53% of the vote, and let’s be real, did we expect anything less from the Trump Train? Chugging along right behind him, we had former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley with 19% and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) holding down third place at 16%. But, as they say, the proof is in the pudding, and it turns out the accuracy of polls is about as unpredictable as Iowa weather!
When the dust settled, it was DeSantis who managed to slide into second place with 21%, leaving poor Haley in third with her 19%. It seems the weather wasn’t the only thing holding her back. J. Ann Selzer, the polling expert, pointed out that the enthusiasm among Haley voters was about as scarce as a snowplow on a country road. Yikes! Looks like her campaign might need a little push from a friendly neighbor with some extra rock salt.
ANALYSIS: @NikkiHaley Said Monday Night, "I Can Safely Say, Tonight IOWA MADE THIS REPUBLICAN PRIMARY A TWO-PERSON RACE."
Interesting Choice Of Words Considering SHE CAME INTHIRD! pic.twitter.com/O941j8SALc— John Basham (@JohnBasham) January 16, 2024
Haley, being the trooper she is, tried to brush off the disappointment by declaring Iowa had made the Republican primary a two-person race. Bless her heart, but maybe she forgot to check the scoreboard! Meanwhile, Team DeSantis wasted no time in pointing out that Haley’s hopes for a two-person showdown just got washed away faster than a snowman in March. Better luck next snowfall, Nikki!
But fear not, loyal Haley fans! It turns out that Iowa might just be the Florida of caucuses – you know, minus the palm trees and sunshine. She’s still got a fighting chance in other states, like New Hampshire, where she’s pulling in nearly 30% support. And let’s not forget the upcoming primary in South Carolina, a state that’s known for being a tad more conservative than New Hampshire – just the kind of place where Haley’s brand of Southern charm might shine like a freshly polished pickup truck.
Now, let’s address the elephant in the room, or shall we say the polar bear? The Iowa caucus was hit with snow, snow, and more snow, not to mention temperatures colder than a polar bear’s toenails. With the extreme weather and icy conditions, it’s no wonder turnout was lower than a gopher’s basement. Only about 110,000 people showed up, representing less than 15% of the state’s registered Republicans, and way down from the nearly 187,000 in 2016. Oof, talk about a cold shoulder!
And let’s not forget the hilarious quip from Professor Goldford about moving the caucuses to July 2028. Now, that’s what I call political climate change! He also pointed out that Haley seemed to be lacking in the ground game department compared to the likes of Trump and DeSantis. Maybe she should have invested in some winter boots and a shovel, because it seems like her campaign got buried under a snowdrift of missed opportunities.
In the end, the Iowa polls might have been as accurate as Trump’s Twitter fingers, but they underestimated the Iowa ground game of DeSantis, who managed to pull in 5% more support on caucus night than anticipated. Iowa may be in the rearview mirror, but the road ahead is still full of twists, turns, and the occasional blizzard. The political weather forecast calls for more drama, more surprises, and enough hot air to melt even the most stubborn snowbank. So buckle up, folks, because the political rollercoaster is just getting started!
