Staff Reports
The 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be a nail-biter, with Vice President Kamala Harris inching unexpectedly ahead of former President Donald Trump in the latest polling averages. This marks a first for Harris in the two-way national RealClearPolitics poll. For those keeping score at home, her lead is slightly larger in the FiveThirtyEight average. Still, it’s about as substantial as Hillary Clinton’s popularity margin in 2016, which helped her grab the popular vote but did nothing for her in the Electoral College.
Democrats are undoubtedly giddy about this development, hoping Harris’s recent surge is the beginning of a lasting trend that will counterfeit Trump’s strength in the polls. Meanwhile, Republicans are more cautious, spotting this as what some have termed the “Harris Honeymoon,” a fleeting surge likely to vanish faster than a politician’s promises.
Has Kamala Harris already peaked? https://t.co/iMi1norlIm
— Washington Examiner (@dcexaminer) August 6, 2024
Of course, numerous events on the horizon could tip the scales in either direction. Harris is on the verge of announcing her running mate while Democrats are gearing up for their convention in Chicago. On the other side of the aisle, Trump is set to be sentenced in a New York hush-money case, which certainly makes for juicy headlines. However, it’s important to note that economic indicators loom large, and if the situation escalates in the Middle East, Biden’s promise of restoring normalcy could go up in flames. Interestingly enough, a recent Wall Street Journal poll revealed that 51% of Americans look back fondly on Trump’s presidency, which is somewhat notable considering how often mainstream media insists he’s a pariah.
Looking at the race reveals two perspectives. One can see that despite the honeymoon phase for Harris, she’s still scrambling to keep her head above water against Trump, who has yet to truly engage in defining her to battleground state voters. Alternatively, some are already praising Harris for achieving in a few weeks what Biden couldn’t manage in months, leading some to wonder if this new energy could carry her deep into the election.
The alarm bells are ringing within the Republican camp, as one pollster pointed out that losing the “false sense of a landslide” is actually a blessing in disguise. It has ignited a sense of urgency among Republicans, underscoring the notion that this election will require hard work rather than a leisurely stroll to victory. Sen. Ted Cruz has expressed concerns about a certain air of overconfidence and celebration among Republicans, particularly at the GOP convention in Milwaukee before the Democrats smoothly transitioned from Biden to Harris.
Biden’s faltering campaign has left a vacuum that Democrats were eager to fill, and Harris, despite her questionable approval ratings, has stepped in. The irony is not lost on conservatives; she has had to ditch much of her original platform from her first presidential run back in 2019—something she conveniently avoids addressing publicly. That said, her ability to communicate effectively is a marked improvement over the 81-year-old Biden, a reality that will resonate as the campaign progresses.
What remains concerning for the Trump campaign is their sluggish response to Harris’s emergence. After weeks of Biden wobbly on the ropes, it seemed obvious that Republicans should have been preparing for this switch. While they could have potentially faced more challenging opponents like a couple of Rust Belt governors, they’re now pinning their hopes on recapturing the hearts and minds of the electorate before time runs out. If Democrats are indeed on an “irrational exuberance” trip, it’s one that the GOP must break up immediately to avoid being blindsided again. Harris’s rise may be too premature to fortify a permanent change in the race, but for Democrats, this moment is certainly a far cry from the pitiful landscape they faced back in June.
