Staff Reports
Kamala Harris appears to be on a political rollercoaster, and not the fun kind. Current polls suggest she might have a shot at snagging the Democratic nomination to face off against Donald Trump, but let’s face facts—this is still a long, bumpy ride filled with potholes big enough to swallow a politician whole. Despite the media’s best efforts to polish her tarnished record, she’s still playing from behind, particularly in the all-important Electoral College, where Democrats often forget that popularity doesn’t equate to victory.
Many may believe that the popular vote is where the action is, but history shows that a warm reception from the masses doesn’t help when Electoral College votes are on the line. Nate Silver has thrown some cold water on the Democrat parade, crunching the numbers and highlighting that Harris is still facing an uphill struggle. With Trump boasting a solid 61-percent chance of coasting past her in a direct matchup, one has to wonder if Harris’s rising popularity is worth the breath it takes to shout from the rooftops.
In the eyes of many political analysts, Harris is a modest underdog, but being an underdog doesn’t mean she’ll bark louder than the bold Republican. She might be seeing a “she’s different” swing in her favor, yet it’s not enough to overcome Trump’s existing Electoral College advantage. It looks like her party might be unwittingly repeating the same mistakes that led to those heart-wrenching losses in 2000 and 2016; a popular vote win does not guarantee a victory dance at an inauguration.
Harris finds herself in a unique predicament, lacking the executive bump her boss supposedly enjoyed. The math isn’t looking good, considering Biden barely eked out a victory last time with the same matchup, especially given that Harris is still an untested candidate without the incumbency perks. Currently, metrics suggest she’s all tied up with Trump in popular votes, but that’s only one piece of the electoral puzzle. The numbers could swing wildly depending on various unpredictable factors—such as an unexpected economic downturn or a sudden surge in voter sentiment.
As politically charged as it sounds, Harris does have some demographic support coming back, particularly from young voters and certain minority groups who previously drifted away. Yet her campaign faces the reality that winning Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania—a trifecta of historic Democrat strongholds—is an uphill climb, especially since her own party is splintered and fraught with internal conflict. Moving into southern states like Georgia and North Carolina might offer glimmers of hope, but there’s no guarantee they won’t slip away like so many sandcastles on the beach.
Pollster: 'Harris Is in Better Shape Than Biden, 'But She Has One Big Problem' https://t.co/dLvjY0cgs8
— Michael J. Fell (@MichaelJFell) August 1, 2024
Ultimately, this race will likely center around the merits of the Electoral College, which tends to favor the GOP, not to mention Trump’s broad coalition of support found in diverse geographical areas. Meanwhile, Harris’s support base resembles more of an urban elite-focused agenda, which isn’t exactly representative of heartland America. The push to define her candidacy will need to pick up momentum swiftly, but Republicans must sharpen their attack strategies against her. Simply poking fun at her background won’t cut it; highlighting her legislative failures and drastic policy changes would resonate better with a disillusioned electorate.
The challenges before Harris are significant, and as the October countdown unfolds, those who enjoy the taste of election-induced schadenfreude must stay alert for any last-minute blunders from the Democrats. This political dance may be getting interesting, but those betting on Harris best ensure they have a safety harness securely fastened; after all, the ride is far from over, and the next dip may hit harder than expected.
