Staff Reports
The Biden administration’s crusade against menthol cigarettes could very well have given a boost to Donald Trump’s re-election campaign in the tobacco-rich areas of North Carolina. It seems that the attempt to ban menthols did more than just rile up smokers; it molded the political landscape in a direction that many Republicans are eager to celebrate. Trump managed to defeat Kamala Harris by 3.4 points in the state—a notable upgrade from his previous performance against Biden in 2020 when he only triumphed by 1.3 points. In North Carolina, the numbers suggest that voters in counties deeply rooted in tobacco—like Pitt, Lenoir, Sampson, Duplin, Columbus, and Robeson—were more than happy to turn out for Trump during the latest election cycle.
While North Carolina has long been a battleground state, its history shows Republican candidates often coming out on top. In 2020, Trump claimed victory, and his winning streak continued into 2024. Some believe that Biden and Harris’s anti-tobacco policies, particularly the proposed menthol cigarette ban, played a key role in Trump’s improved performance in the state. GOP insiders have pointed out that the backlash against the ban was palpable in eastern North Carolina, where it did wonders for Trump’s appeal, noticeably outpacing his earlier electoral successes.
Biden White House close to finalizing menthol cigarette ban in the face of major pushback https://t.co/d76y3U7QCm pic.twitter.com/GwnxthYfGx
— New York Post (@nypost) April 4, 2024
Polling data in the lead-up to the election indicated that black voters, who might otherwise lean Democratic, were less likely to back Harris due to her association with the menthol cigarette ban. A survey conducted by the Tyson Group revealed a significant decline—13 percent—in support for Harris among black voters if she endorsed the potential ban. Although it’s unclear how much this swayed the final vote, those in the GOP are confident that it had a tangible effect. Some strategists described the ban as a “sleeper issue” that resonated strongly with both black men and the farming community.
Republicans wasted no time tying Harris’s potential support for a menthol ban to the Biden administration. The calculation was straightforward: the more people thought about the government’s intervention in their sugary menthol delights, the more unappealing Harris appeared. While she danced around the issue during her campaign, her indecision only left the door wide open for Republicans to swoop in and capture the votes of disenchanted North Carolinians—especially in a state that boasts tobacco as its cash crop.
On the regulatory side, the FDA initially entertained the idea of banning menthol cigarettes back in spring 2021, but the Biden administration has stalled the proposal, likely due to voter backlash. Businesses, particularly those in the convenience store sector, are deeply concerned that such a ban could send their profits plummeting. The sales of cigarettes represent a staggering 30% of all sales for convenience stores, contributing billions to the economic fabric of North Carolina. Strategists note that the menthol cigarette ban was a fresh topic, breaking through the standard discourse surrounding abortion, immigration, and the economy.
Even with Trump’s victory projection, not all Democrats fell victim to the anti-menthol sentiment. Rep. Don Davis, a vulnerable Democratic incumbent, managed to win reelection. His outspoken resistance to the menthol ban likely helped him weather the storm. Nonetheless, GOP strategists forecast that the implications of the menthol ban could ripple beyond North Carolina, influencing political strategy in other tobacco-laden states. The battle over Biden and Harris’s anti-tobacco policies should keep conservatives buzzing and voters buzzing—especially in the wake of a political environment that seems anything but boring.
