Staff Reports
Pollsters might want to hang up their polling boots and consider a new career after yet another disastrous performance, as they once again underestimated the robust support for Donald Trump. Despite being humiliated in both 2016 and 2020, they seem to have decided to go for a hat trick of embarrassment in 2024. While the mainstream media tried to spin polling results as an indication of a tight race, the reality on election night told a completely different story.
In the lead-up to the 2024 election, the pollsters cast a wide net with results showing a neck-and-neck competition between Trump and Harris. They even had the audacity to release a jaw-dropping survey from the Des Moines Register that showed Harris leading Trump by three points in Iowa—a state Trump won by a commanding eight points in 2020. For a media landscape that thrives on sensationalism, there is perhaps no greater feast than a last-minute poll claiming to predict a major upset. But it turns out, this “respected” poll was merely a mirage in the political desert.
Ann Selzer after producing the least accurate poll in history pic.twitter.com/hC0hkafjkD
— Matthew Thomas (@mthomas_27) November 6, 2024
The grand maestro of this poll debacle, Ann Selzer, who has been touted as Iowa’s polling royalty, must have been hoping for fairy-tale endings this election cycle. Instead, she had to watch her prediction crumble as Trump completely obliterated Harris, clinching Iowa by a whopping 56-42 percent. It’s hard not to chuckle at the sight of pollsters scrambling to make sense of their spectacular miscalculation. They claimed they would analyze the data further—good luck with that!
One must ponder how Selzer and her colleagues continue to misjudge the electoral pulse of America, especially when it’s abundantly clear that many Trump supporters prefer to keep their choices private. It appears likely that a sizeable number of voters simply declined to respond or maybe, just maybe, have taken to engaging in a bit of good old-fashioned subterfuge. It seems a majority of the Trump base is not keen on giving pollsters any satisfaction, and considering that most Trump aficionados are not going to spill the beans to a bunch of strangers, it’s easy to see why traditional polling methodologies are as effective as a chocolate teapot.
Although Selzer hinted that late-deciding voters may have flipped their allegiance to Trump and noted the inconspicuous presence of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on the ballot, none of those excuses can truly account for the staggering 17-point variance in her most recent polling predictions. This colossal gap indicates that something is fundamentally amiss in how these pollsters connect with voters—or more likely, how they fail to connect altogether.
As America heads further into the political arena, the very future of polling seems to hang in the balance. Could it be that Trump’s unique brand of support has broken the very mechanisms designed to capture public sentiment? One only wishes pollsters a hearty farewell on their quest for relevancy, as their methods may have sealed their own fate. After all, if they can’t keep up with the reality of Trump’s burgeoning fan base, perhaps it’s time to hang up their clipboards and surrender their polling pens for good.
