Staff Reports
Bashar Assad’s ambitious plan to carve out a coastal Alawite statelet along Syria’s shores has hit a brick wall, thanks to an apparent lack of interest from Russian President Vladimir Putin. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights—an organization that sounds more like a political Instagram page than a stalwart news reporting agency—Putin read between the lines and realized that supporting such a project could lead to further fragmentation of Syria, an outcome that doesn’t sit well with Moscow’s long-term strategic goals in the region.
In a country where the majority of the population identifies as Sunni, the Assad family has managed to hold on to power for over half a century, largely due to their Alawite roots. This sect is a minority that adheres to a branch of Shiite Islam but doesn’t exactly follow the dietary restrictions most people might expect. Perhaps this refusal to toe the Islamic line makes them less desirable in the eyes of the larger Sunni populace. Nevertheless, the Assad family’s grip on power has left many analysts pondering the resurgence of an Alawite State, an idea that historically thrived under French colonial rule but has sputtered ever since.
The specter of an independent Alawite State has occasionally been revived in discussions about Syria, particularly when it looked like Assad was facing defeat during the civil war. Pundits then suggested that a new state could be formed within the existing Alawite-majority regions of Latakia and Tartus. However, the strategic interests of Russia, which has entrenched itself within Syria with its military bases, have probably taken precedence over any dream of partitioning a war-torn country with a historical penchant for upheaval.
Interestingly, some Russian elites support the idea of an Alawite state for its potential to secure their military interests, ensuring that their bases aren’t overrun by any hostile forces. But one must tread carefully in this murky geopolitical game. The former speaker of the legislature for the Russian separatists in Ukraine appears to believe a revival of the Alawite State could do wonders for minority communities, potentially saving Europe from an influx of refugees as well. However, it is questionable whether policymakers in Moscow are keen to reposition themselves with the likes of a faltering regime.
Assad wanted to create statelet along Syrian coast with Russian backing as last ditch effort to remain in power: Report https://t.co/H5GqK6Dtde
— Washington Examiner (@dcexaminer) December 12, 2024
Despite Assad’s alleged aspirations, evidence suggests that an Alawite revival might happen even without him at the helm. The ongoing violence against Alawites from certain Sunni factions is grim, to say the least. Attempts to communicate the necessity of protecting religious minorities, like the Alawites and Christians, fell on the deaf ears of those wishing to oust Assad. Consequently, the horrifying scenes emerging from Syria—a nation struggling under jihadist violence—should raise a few eyebrows about how “tolerant” these so-called moderate factions really are.
In any case, Assad seems to have taken his family and retreated to the safety of Russia, leaving behind the smoldering ruins of a conflict-ridden country. While there is no sign he intends to return, the backlash against Alawites could very well revive calls for an independent state. Whether the world is ready for another autocrat to step back into power under the pretense of protection for a minority remains a topic for next week’s political debate, but it undoubtedly remains a keen point of interest for any observers keeping track of this complicated saga.
