Staff Reports
Big trouble is brewing for Democrat Senator Jon Tester in Montana as he faces a fierce challenge from GOP nominee Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL. With just weeks until the November election, the stakes couldn’t be higher. This race is crucial, not just for Tester but for the Democrats’ hold on the Senate. Tester is in a tight spot, as polling shows Sheehy, who has the backing of Donald Trump, pulling ahead.
Recent polling trends have been alarming for the incumbent, revealing Sheehy leading by an average of over five points. However, a recent survey by a bipartisan polling group is particularly damaging, showing Tester trailing Sheehy by as much as eight points in a crowded field. In a head-to-head contest, Tester still lags six points behind. This is not just a mild hiccup; it signals deep trouble for Tester just as the election approaches.
New poll from Fabrizio/Binder yet more evidence Jon Tester is in big trouble.https://t.co/3C9Vc8CMGh pic.twitter.com/wETxqLzp6V
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) September 5, 2024
The popularity of Donald Trump is a significant factor in Sheehy’s lead. In a state that solidly supported Trump in 2020, the former president enjoys a commanding lead over Vice President Kamala Harris and is even outpacing Tester among independent voters. While Tester has managed to secure some independent support in the Senate race, it’s not enough to counteract Trump’s stronghold on the electorate. The polling memo warns that both Tester and Harris have nearly maxed out their electoral potential among Democrats, leaving them vulnerable.
If Sheehy manages to unseat Tester, it could spell disaster for the Democratic Party’s hopes of maintaining control of the Senate. With West Virginia likely flipping to Republican, the Democrats would need a miraculous performance in other battlegrounds to remain competitive. Polling is neck-and-neck in swing states like Pennsylvania and Ohio, but Montana is positioning itself as a landmine for the Democrats. Compounding Tester’s woes is his continued alignment with Joe Biden, whose approval ratings sink lower every day.
Tester has been vocal about his support for Biden, even amidst rising concerns regarding the president’s mental acuity. His attempts to reassure voters about Biden’s competence have not resonated well, especially in a state where common sense and practicality reign supreme. Sheehy has seized the opportunity to remind voters of the frustration many feel, suggesting that Montanans are tired of being treated as if they aren’t paying attention to the broader issues facing the country. The prospect of a fourth term for Tester seems increasingly tenuous as voters grow weary of political spin and denial.
As the days inch closer to the election, the momentum is undoubtedly shifting in favor of Tim Sheehy. The impending showdown could change the landscape of the Senate, making every day leading up to November critical. The battle in Montana is a rallying point for conservatives who are eager to reclaim the Senate and put an end to the Democratic agenda that many feel has gone too far. With the odds stacked against him, Jon Tester would need a miracle—or perhaps some strategic distancing from the administration he has staunchly defended—to survive this fight.
