Staff Reports
The unraveling of the Assad regime in Syria has become a veritable soap opera, and it appears that President-elect Donald Trump has taken a front-row seat for the drama. During a recent press conference, Trump pointed the finger squarely at Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, labeling him the “biggest winner” in this tumultuous saga. Trump described Assad, the butcher of Damascus, as a relic that nobody would miss. Interestingly enough, it’s Turkey, not the U.S., that seems to be orchestrating the chaotic ballet currently unfolding in Syria—an unexpected role reversal that would make even the most seasoned political analysts scratch their heads.
As the story goes, Bashar Assad, the long-time dictator, made a hasty exit to Russia like a contestant leaving a game show early, after jihadist forces stormed Damascus. The area is now under the control of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an al-Qaeda offshoot that has crafted a new plan for Syria, which includes a so-called “inclusive” Islamist government. The administration of outgoing President Joe Biden, forever keen on waving the democracy flag, has vowed to support whatever new regime arises from this chaotic undertaking in Syria. This sounds a bit like giving a thumbs-up to a pig in a poke—who really knows what kind of regime will rise from the ashes?
"He's a very smart guy. They've wanted it for thousands of years and he got it."
US President-elect Donald Trump stated that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan carried out an “unfriendly takeover” in Syria. pic.twitter.com/O6CdbTCzKm
— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) December 17, 2024
The backstory to this mess reveals some fascinating alliances. Reports suggest that HTS was cozying up to Erdogan long before they launched their campaign to seize Aleppo. Erdogan, a man notorious for his unpredictable political maneuvers, was alleged to have promised to “end the rule of the tyrant Assad,” but has since changed gears to actively support the opposition despite their ties to jihadist elements. Whether this relationship is more like a marriage of convenience or a lifelong romance remains a question for the ages.
In the great geopolitical chess match that is the Syrian Civil War, it’s often overlooked how these players have maneuvered. Erdogan’s military ambitions in Syria largely focus on eliminating the Kurdish forces, whom Turkey sees as a common enemy. The U.S. military’s long-standing support for those same Kurdish forces adds a strange twist to the drama, one that even the most convoluted Hollywood plot would struggle to rival. The Biden administration’s ineffectual attempts to curb Turkish aggression points to an even larger game of international diplomacy—one where the Kurdish forces are left holding the bag.
So, what does this mean for those few hundred American troops still stationed in Syria? Trump hinted at a lack of any desire to maintain that presence, suggesting that maybe the U.S. should get out of this incredibly complicated nest of political snakes. This thought resonates with many who understand that America’s military interests and the squabbles between Turkey, Assad, and the various rebel factions have long muddled the waters. Trump’s past military decisions, including a controversial withdrawal that drew ire but appeared to save lives, highlight the difficulty of navigating such a war-torn quagmire. In the end, it appears the only thing truly clear in the fog of war is that Turkey has indeed stolen the show—just as Trump predicted.
