Staff Reports
Democrats may think that a rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden would be a walk in the park, but recent polls suggest otherwise. In an Emerson College poll released on Wednesday, Trump, the current GOP frontrunner, led nationally by four points. While this falls within the margin of error, a 4-point lead is nothing to scoff at, especially considering that several other recent polls also show Biden in deep water.
The Emerson College poll found that 47% of registered voters would choose Trump in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, compared to 43% for Biden. Additionally, 10% of voters remain undecided, further complicating Biden’s chances. This recent poll also shows a decrease in Biden’s support since the previous month, while Trump’s support has remained steady at 47%.
Commentary: Trump Expands Lead Over Biden in New Poll as Women, Blacks, Hispanics Jump off Sinking Ship https://t.co/mz7TH1Z8nx
— IJR (@TheIJR) November 23, 2023
The inclusion of third-party and independent candidates adds another layer of concern for Biden and his supporters. With candidates like Robert Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein added to the ballot, Trump’s support decreases slightly to 42%, but Biden’s support drops significantly to 36%. The share of undecided voters also increases to 13%.
Not only are the poll numbers looking unfavorable for Biden, but his approval ratings are also declining. Only 38% of respondents approve of the job he’s doing, while 50% disapprove. This marks the lowest approval rating for Biden this year, and it’s similar to his approval rating at this time last year.
Furthermore, Biden seems to be losing support from key identity groups that traditionally vote Democratic. Among black voters, there has been a net 15% shift in support for Biden, from a 61-point lead to a 47-point lead. The same trend is observed with Hispanic voters, where Biden’s lead dropped by 11 points. Women and voters under 50 also shifted their support away from Biden.
These poll numbers should come as no surprise, as even NBC News’ poll shows Trump leading Biden nationally. In addition, a swing-state survey from the U.K.’s Stack Data Strategy shows Trump with significant leads in key swing states. While Biden may still win the popular vote, the model predicts Trump winning in the Electoral College by a 292-246 margin. This includes winning back crucial swing states such as Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
The combination of Biden’s declining support, the popularity of Trump’s policies, and the potential to win swing states puts Trump in a favorable position for a 2024 rematch. It’s time for the expensive charade of Biden’s presidency to end, as America seems to share the sentiment that this isn’t working out.
