Staff Reports
In a surprising turn of events, former President Donald Trump has taken the lead over President Joe Biden in the RealClearPolitics (RCP) polling average. Trump is currently leading Biden by a slim margin of 0.4 percentage points, with 44.8% to Biden’s 44.4%. This shift in polling numbers comes as the Biden administration faces challenges on various fronts, including the economy, foreign policy, and the ongoing pandemic.
While individual polls can sometimes be unreliable, the RCP average is widely considered as a reliable indicator of public sentiment as it takes into account multiple polls. Prominent polls such as The Wall Street Journal, CNN, and the New York Post have all contributed to this average.
This shift in polling suggests a potential resurgence in Trump’s popularity and raises questions about the standing of the Biden administration among the American public. If Biden fails to regain support from minority voters by November 2024, it could continue the trend of diminishing Democratic strength in demographics that traditionally support the party. Despite this, Biden still maintains his appeal among white voters at levels comparable to four years ago.
A recent report from the New York Times highlights the significant decline in support for Biden among non-white voters. According to a compilation of New York Times/Siena College national polls from 2022 and 2023, Biden’s lead over Trump among registered non-white voters is only at 53% to 28%. This marks a sharp decline compared to the 70% of non-white vote Biden secured in 2020.
While there is a glimmer of hope for Biden to win back previously supportive voters, the Democratic party cannot afford to be complacent. Democrats have seen a consistent decline in support from non-white voters over the past decade, despite efforts to address racially charged issues such as border walls and national anthem protests.
JUST IN: Former President Donald Trump has overtaken President Joe Biden in Real Clear Politics polling average for the 2024 election.
The RPC average now shows Trump leading by +0.4.
This explains why the regime media as well as Democrat politicians are beginning to abandon… pic.twitter.com/x1RDSlpCjs
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) September 14, 2023
There are several factors contributing to Biden’s vulnerabilities among non-white voters, including his age, economic challenges, and other socio-economic issues that disproportionately affect non-white communities. Additionally, issues like abortion and threats to democracy may resonate less with Black and Hispanic voters who tend to be more conservative compared to white Biden supporters. Economic challenges also play a role, with Biden underperforming among non-white voters earning less than $100,000 annually.
The data also reveals an emerging education gap among non-white voters, with Biden leading by a wider margin among non-white college graduates compared to those without a four-year degree. This suggests that Trump’s conservative populism is influencing the political affiliations of working-class voters across different racial backgrounds.
Biden’s waning support is not limited to a specific demographic or racial group. While he still leads among Black voters by a significant margin of 72% to 11%, this is lower than his performance in the 2020 elections. Among Hispanic registrants, Biden leads by a narrower margin of 47% to 35%, which is also lower compared to his previous performance.
The generational divide is particularly evident among Black voters, with Biden’s support diminishing among younger registered voters. This highlights the potential for lower turnout among Black and Hispanic voters in upcoming elections, rather than a significant shift towards Trump.
If these trends continue, the 2024 elections could mark the weakest performance by a Democratic leader among Black and Hispanic voters since Walter Mondale in 1984, as reported by the New York Times. This raises concerns for the Biden administration and highlights the need for them to address the concerns of minority voters in order to regain their support in future elections.
