Staff Reports
Rumors are spreading that former President Donald Trump might challenge President Joe Biden in Virginia, even though the state has consistently supported Democratic candidates since 2008. A recent poll showed that Biden and Trump are tied at 42% in a head-to-head race, with Trump leading by 2 points when third-party candidates are included. Despite Biden currently trending ahead in the state, his lead is way behind where Trump was in his 2020 polling against Biden.
In 2020, Biden had the largest win by a Democrat in Virginia since 1944, but now his campaign is facing challenges. Virginia has been a blue state since Obama’s 2008 victory, and Biden’s success in 2020 was due in part to winning over large voter bases in certain counties and flipping Virginia Beach, where Trump had won in 2016.
Even though Trump lost to Biden in Virginia in 2020, his campaign is confident that he can change the narrative in the state. The recent election of Governor Glenn Youngkin in Virginia, a more centrist Republican than Trump, has also fueled speculation that Trump could compete in the state. Youngkin won the state by about 2 points and has received a 53% approval rating.
While it’s unlikely that Trump will win Virginia, the fact that it could be close raises concerns for Biden’s campaign. According to Larry Sabato, a political analyst, if Virginia is even competitive in the fall, it’s a bad sign for Biden, given that Virginia is more Democratic than many true swing states. The Cook Political Report rates the Virginia presidential race as “Solid D,” indicating that the state is not considered to be competitive.
