Staff Reports
A range of economic changes in the upcoming months could affect the presidential race for or against President Joe Biden. Currently, the contest appears to be very close, with Biden and Former President Donald Trump polling almost evenly both nationally and in the Electoral College. Smaller shifts in economic indicators, like income growth, inflation, changes in interest rates, and fluctuations in gas prices, could prove decisive in determining the outcome of the election.
A well-known election model, developed by Yale professor Ray Fair, has been predicting the popular vote outcome since 1980 based on just two variables: gross domestic product growth and inflation. As of April 25, the model projected that Biden would win 51.72% of the popular vote. However, this doesn’t guarantee a victory in the Electoral College, where winning margins can be slim. For example, in 2020, Biden won 52.2% of the popular vote but won the Electoral College by narrow margins in crucial states. A slight change in popular vote share could have resulted in a Trump victory.
CNN Freaks Out Over Stunning Poll Numbers for Trump
The polls are in, and holy cow, Trump is leading in 5 of 6 key battleground states, including Nevada, by 13 points.
CNN’s Harry Enten described the polling data as an “absolute disaster” for Joe Biden.
“The smallest lead is… pic.twitter.com/RPgxRdUQJ8
— Vigilant News (@VigilantNews) May 14, 2024
Another model by Moody’s Analytics takes into account a wider range of economic factors, such as gas prices, household income growth, mortgage rates, and consumer confidence, to predict the winner of the Electoral College. As of January, this model predicted that Biden would win the Electoral College, albeit by a narrow margin. The model indicates that significant changes in gas prices, mortgage rates, or household income growth would be required to tip the election in favor of Trump.
Overall, while some economic indicators favor Biden, such as strong GDP growth and payroll job growth, he faces challenges with high inflation and interest rates. Additionally, consumer sentiment toward the economy is lower than expected, with a majority of respondents disapproving of Biden’s economic performance. Therefore, while the economic fundamentals are somewhat in Biden’s favor, the economy poses a significant challenge for him in terms of voter sentiment.
