Staff Reports
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is showing a remarkable ability to toe the line like a seasoned politician as he flips his stance on a mineral rights deal with the United States. Just a week ago, he seemed to mock the prospects of such an agreement, prompting former President Donald Trump to aptly label him a “dictator.” However, after facing backlash from both political sides, Zelensky is now eager to cut a deal, leading Secretary of State Marco Rubio to comment on Zelensky’s sudden change of heart. It appears that when the stakes are high enough, even leaders can be taught a lesson in humility.
The situation has evolved rapidly, with reports indicating that a deal is now close to being hashed out between the U.S. and Ukraine. Specifics remain hazy, but Ukrainian Minister of Justice Olga Stefanishyna, who wears multiple hats in her role, has hinted at a fund intended to utilize mineral extraction revenues to repay American taxpayers for their substantial investment in Ukraine. Zelensky claims they owe around $90 billion, which is a far cry from the initial, lofty expectation of $500 billion. Nothing like the prospect of a hefty bill to bring a leader back to reality.
The proposed agreement outlines a commitment from the United States to foster a “free, sovereign and secure” Ukraine, alongside a promise of “lasting peace.” While the text is still being neatened up—because what’s a negotiation without a little drama?—the U.S. has also indicated that those who have harmed Ukraine during the war should not reap the benefits of its reconstruction. It seems common sense can still prevail in politics, occasionally.
Interestingly, the fine print on security guarantees remains as foggy as a London morning. Zelensky insists that surety must be part of the deal, while U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has proposed that economic guarantees would be the clever alternative. The assumption here is that American businesses would act as a deterrent against Russian aggression. In theory, if Russian forces thought there was a U.S. corporate presence, they might hesitate to escalate their attacks. That’s the kind of logic that’s best served with a side of crossed fingers.
NEW: Zelensky Changes His Tune, As US and Ukraine Close in on Mineral Rights Dealhttps://t.co/7TyRioVrPf
— RedState (@RedState) February 24, 2025
Ukraine’s attempt to wiggle for more security guarantees speaks to its limited negotiation power. The Trump administration is clearly reluctant to get entangled in any form of troop deployment. If Zelensky is looking to play hardball, he may find that his leverage is about as strong as wet tissue paper. The significant concession from the U.S., which is asking for only a 50 percent contribution towards the repayment fund, tells a tale of the current zeitgeist: America isn’t eager to keep footing the bill without a return on investment.
As the outlines of this deal continue to take shape, it’s clear that Zelensky has to evaluate just how far he can push before pushing too far becomes costly. For now, the Trump administration seems set to sign off on something, demonstrating that even future deals must take the existing stakes and shifted priorities into account. With the war still hanging in the balance, it remains to be seen which side will ultimately prevail in this high-stakes chess match.
