Staff Reports
The latest UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll is a wake‑up call for California conservatives — and for anyone who thinks ballot fate is decided months before the ads start. The IGS release this week says Proposition 40, the so‑called “billionaire tax,” only holds a narrow lead among likely voters, while Proposition 39, the voter‑ID measure, remains a close, partisan fight. In plain language: neither race is a runaway, and both could swing with money, ads, or a single court ruling.
New Berkeley IGS poll: narrow lead, big stakes
The Berkeley IGS release (their latest likely‑voter update) is the news peg here. It reports that Prop. 40 has a slim edge with the voters who look most likely to vote this fall. That is a step down from earlier IGS/Los Angeles Times numbers taken of registered voters in March, which showed the billionaire tax above 50 percent. Poll director Mark DiCamillo even said he was “a little surprised” by how modest the leads were given all the attention. Put simply, early momentum exists — but it is fragile.
What Prop. 40 and Prop. 39 actually do
Prop. 40 would impose a one‑time 5% tax on net worth above $1 billion for California residents. Supporters say it will fund healthcare and other needs. Opponents warn of legal fights, flight risks, and creative tax planning. Prop. 39 would require government‑issued ID for in‑person voting and add verification steps for mail ballots. That measure has already sparked lawsuits and pushes from state officials, including Attorney General Rob Bonta and Secretary of State Shirley Weber, who are deeply involved in the legal wrangling over ballot language and local rules.
Money, courts and the campaign tug‑of‑war
Expect cash to decide these fights. Billionaires and their allies have already ploughed money into countermeasures against the tax, while unions and labor groups are lining up to defend it. The Democratic Party’s endorsement of the billionaire tax — despite a split with Governor Gavin Newsom — shows how messy this race can get. On the voter‑ID side, legal rulings and state challenges can reshape how the measure looks to voters. Polls taken now are useful, but they are snapshots before the TV ads, mailers, and courtroom fireworks begin.
Bottom line: the next months will matter
For conservatives this is both warning and opportunity. The IGS likely‑voter numbers mean neither proposition is settled. If you care about secure elections, push voter‑ID messaging hard. If you oppose wealth‑tax gimmicks, be ready to match money and get voters to the polls. Polls like Berkeley IGS are useful signals, not final verdicts. The campaign season is where these narrow leads will live or die — and California voters will decide if they want common sense or spectacle at the ballot box.
