Staff Reports
The state quietly set a hard deadline: the Department of Water Resources’ standby contracts that kept three once‑through‑cooling natural‑gas plants available for emergency use will expire on December 31, 2026. That move will remove roughly 2,859 megawatts of dispatchable, last‑resort power from the Los Angeles area’s strategic reserve — AES Alamitos, AES Huntington Beach and GenOn/Ormond Beach. Call it the Green New Deal in practice: paid to sit idle yesterday, and now gone when the grid might still need it tomorrow.
Contracts expire and nearly 2,860 MW disappears
The math is simple and unforgiving. AES Alamitos Units 3–5 contributed about 1,141 MW, AES Huntington Beach Unit 2 roughly 227 MW, and GenOn/Ormond Beach Units 1–2 about 1,491 MW — total about 2,859 MW. The DWR had been paying multi‑year standby fees — roughly $1.2 to $1.3 billion committed — to keep these older plants on standby rather than operating daily. As analyst Carrie Bentley bluntly put it: “California is relying on this capacity today, and in less than three months most of it will no longer be there.”
Why this matters for grid reliability
These units were not decorative. They were the insurance policy used during 2026 heat spikes and other stress events. State planners point to thousands of megawatts of battery storage and new clean resources coming online in 2027, but those projects have schedules and risks. If battery deliveries slip, a big heat wave plus a transmission outage could turn a planning problem into rotating outages for homes and businesses.
Politics, money and the rush to retire reliable power
Don’t overlook the politics: regulators phasing out once‑through cooling did so for marine and environmental reasons, which is a valid goal. But the state chose to bankroll standby contracts to keep the plants as a bridge, and that bridge now comes down. The bill — hundreds of millions already paid and well over a billion committed — came from state coffers. Environmental groups will cheer the retirements. Residents and grid managers who prefer having spare capacity will not. Someone should explain why we paid to park nearly 3,000 MW and then plan to turn it off before a proven replacement is fully in place.
Bottom line: don’t gamble with LA’s lights
There are two reasonable options: extend the standby contracts until firm replacement capacity is actually delivered, or produce iron‑clad, on‑the‑record proof that batteries, transmission upgrades and other resources will be in place with spare margin before December 31, 2026. The current path asks Californians to bet on promises and timetables instead of hard capability. That’s a political choice — and not a smart one when people’s lights and livelihoods are at stake.
