Staff Reports
The race for the next GOP Senate leader is heating up, with three candidates—Minority Whip John Thune from South Dakota, Senator John Cornyn from Texas, and Senator Rick Scott from Florida—wondering just how significant Donald Trump’s potential endorsement could be. While Trump has kept his cards close to the vest and has yet to publicly intervene, his influence looms large over the candidates, making it clear that the best-laid plans of GOP mice and men could go awry any moment.
Thune has been vocal about the power Trump holds over the Republican base, acknowledging that the former president’s choice could tilt the scales in this upcoming secret ballot showdown. Behind the scenes, speculation runs rampant about how a Trump-endorsed candidate could change the dynamics of the race, especially for the other two contenders, who have been trying to mend fences after the fallout of the 2020 election.
Only way to look at tonight’s results. The red tsunami arrived later than expected. Senate GOP House likely to increase count for GOP and Trump back in the WH. pic.twitter.com/Met7ai2FHH
— Imake Libscry Order of the Patriots 9th Level (@MagatTrollHntr) November 6, 2024
Interestingly, Rick Scott appears to be the only candidate with a relatively clean slate in his dealings with Trump. Having previously received Trump’s blessing in an unsuccessful bid for Senate leadership, Scott stands apart from the others, who have had to deal with the fallout of their post-2020 endorsements. However, optimism for Scott’s chance at success might be as faint as the chances of finding true bipartisan cooperation in the Senate.
Thune and Cornyn, meanwhile, have been playing their own games of political tug-of-war with Trump. Both have publicly backed Trump in this election cycle, even fundraising for his campaign, but Cornyn seems to be the one making the bolder moves, such as showcasing his “make the Senate work again” ambitions on national television. This is reminiscent of a classic play—show the public face and hope Trump takes notice.
The stakes for this leadership race couldn’t be higher, given that it marks the first significant shake-up in GOP leadership since Mitch McConnell called the shots. McConnell will remain in the mix but will step back from leadership, opening a void that Thune, Cornyn, and Scott are fully aware of as they navigate their way through an increasingly fractious Republican caucus.
The introduction of new faces in the Senate adds a layer of unpredictability to the mix, with potential support coming from the likes of Ohio’s Bernie Moreno and Montana’s Tim Sheehy. Even though Thune is favored due to his minority whip status, the emphasis on fundraising by Cornyn hints that any candidate can rise with the right financial backing.
In the race to capture Trump’s affection, the smart money may be on falling in line behind Thune or Cornyn, who both have stretched their hands towards Trump, hoping to salvage relationships that were awkwardly strained in the wake of the 2020 election. Rumors swirl about who Trump would choose if he had to pick—but the overwhelming sentiment seems to suggest that effective prior partnership with Trump offers Cornyn the upper hand. Meanwhile, Scott’s supporters might argue he has a genuine commitment to Trump’s agenda, but as anyone knows, talk is cheap when it comes to ranking in Republican leadership.
As this riveting political subplot unfolds, one thing is clear: the 2024 election cycle has just warmed up, and the Senate leadership race is poised to draw in those who hope to ride the coattails of Trump’s immense influence. The question everyone’s left pondering is just how that endorsement, if it comes, will reshape the future of the GOP in the Senate moving forward.
