The final sprint towards the election is shaping up to be as nail-biting as an episode of Survivor without the immunity idols. Vice President Kamala Harris appears to be in a frantic scramble, aiming to stabilize her underwater campaign with a series of media interviews. Despite her efforts, it seems the damage may already be done, especially considering that even her hand-picked outlets aren’t making her look too great. Michigan, which has been an interesting battleground state due to its unique demographics and attitudes towards Israel, is quickly slipping from Harris’s grasp, as polls suggest she may not even retain her edge against Donald Trump.
For all the bravado about a +2.0 national lead in polls, Harris’s reality in the battlegrounds is far grimmer. A recent survey indicates Trump is, in fact, leading Harris in Michigan by a whisker—49% to 48%. This is not a great sign for a politician trying to assure voters she’s the candidate to beat. Polls are notoriously fickle, but Harris’s own lead there has eroded to a mere +0.7, painting a grim picture as voters close in on their final decisions. It’s almost as if Michigan is on the verge of saying “thanks, but no thanks” to her candidacy.
Sifting through the delightful deluge of polling data, one emerges as the pivot-point: the Mitchell Research & Communications poll for Michigan News Source, which finds Trump actually ahead among likely voters. Harris’s previous optimism seems to have hit the proverbial iceberg. Even in a full field of candidates, these two major players are tied at an unsettling 47% each, showing that maybe, just maybe, Harris’s ship is taking on water.
Moreover, while some polls attempt to paint a cheery picture for Harris supporters, like the Glengariff Group’s findings that show her with a slight lead, the numbers are quite literally within the margin of error. When pressed, these flimsy leads hardly deserve celebration. Meanwhile, Trump continues to lead Harris on the crucial issue of the economy, which voters still regard as their top concern. With 18% of voters pointing to the economy as their major issue, Trump’s dominance on this front—52% to 45%—is certainly a figurative cherry on his electoral sundae.
The potential fallout from these polling trends goes beyond just who claims victory in Michigan. The state’s 15 electoral votes are crucial, not just for the presidency but also for bolstering the party that controls the Senate. Democrats are down to their last moves in the Senate race too, with Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin and former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers in a high-stakes duel to replace retiring Senator Debbie Stabenow. Forecasts vary from “Toss-Up” to “Lean Democratic,” which, in the current political climate, could change on a dime.
Harris’s predicament also aligns with another troubling trend—her party’s diminishing support in key voter blocks, particularly within the Arab American community. As Trump holds a slight edge among Arab voters in Michigan, it becomes clear that Harris’s questionable foreign policy moves, alongside her penchant for controversial comments about Israel, have alienated crucial voters. The emerging “Abandon Harris” brigade backing a Green Party candidate provides further indication that grassroots support for Harris is fraying.
As it stands, while Harris tries to navigate the stormy political seas, the tide appears to be turning. Whether it’s her lackluster interviews, declining poll numbers, or the encroaching crisis in Michigan, there is a distinct possibility that she may not only lose a state but also conjure a potential resurgence for Trump come election day. If this is how the race looks in October, then November may prove to be even more unsettling for the Harris camp.