Staff Reports
A new poll has put Los Angeles into political drama territory. The California Post–McLaughlin poll released this week shows Councilmember Nithya Raman leading Mayor Karen Bass in the Nov. 3 runoff, and pundits are busy wondering whether Los Angeles is about to “mirror New York” with another democratic-socialist mayor. Before anyone reaches for the fainting couch, read the numbers and the fine print — then worry in a focused way.
The poll that turned heads
The California Post–McLaughlin numbers show Raman at 46.7% and Bass at 38.8%, with roughly 13.5% undecided. The survey of about 400 likely or registered Los Angeles voters was fielded Oct. 15–18 by McLaughlin & Associates. Other polls, like the Berkeley IGS/Los Angeles Times survey, also show Raman ahead, though margins and undecided shares vary. Raman’s campaign sounded upbeat — “We’re excited. We’re grateful. Give us a chance to earn your vote,” — while Mayor Karen Bass downplayed a single poll, saying the race will be tight. Polling experts note Raman has the advantage in several samples, but many voters remain up for grabs.
Why people are talking about “mirroring New York”
The easy hook is this: Zohran Mamdani, a self-identified democratic socialist, is now mayor of New York City, and Nithya Raman has backing from the Democratic Socialists of America. Put those facts together and you have commentators declaring a pattern. That’s headline-friendly, but it skips something important — municipal politics are stubbornly local. Still, it’s reasonable to ask whether the Democratic Party’s left flank is winning influence in big cities, and whether mainstream Democrats are ceding control because voters are furious with the status quo.
Poll caution: read the fine print
Don’t treat one topline as gospel. The McLaughlin sample is small for a big-city head-to-head, the poll was sponsored and publicized in partisan outlets, and other polls show a large undecided bloc. Pollster lean and methodology matter, and turnout will decide this race. That said, polls pointing at weakness for an incumbent with a roughly 70% disapproval number in some samples are not comforting. Voters aren’t necessarily embracing socialism; they’re handing a protest vote to someone on the left because the people in charge have failed on homelessness, public safety and city services.
Why conservatives should pay attention — and voters should too
If Raman wins and DSA-backed officials gain more power, it won’t be symbolic theater. Mayors direct budgets, run police oversight, appoint commissioners for ports, airports and utilities, and shape local immigration and public-safety policy. Republicans ought to hammer those practical stakes — who runs the police, who controls the Department of Water and Power, and who answers for crime and blight. Voters should demand specifics, not slogans. The poll is a wake-up call: this race still swings on turnout and undecideds, and the future of LA’s governance hangs in the balance.
