Staff Reports
In less than 12 hours, the political showdown between President Joe Biden and former (and possibly future) President Donald Trump will take center stage on CNN. The buzz around this highly anticipated debate has been intense, with chatter about stakes, expectations, and strategies flying around like confetti at a leftist parade. Just to add some spice to the mix, a fresh Economist/YouGov poll is painting an interesting picture—and it’s not looking rosy for Biden.
A plurality of voters, about 42 percent, have already thrown their weight behind Trump, confidently stating he will outperform Biden in the debate. Meanwhile, only 34 percent believe Biden can pull it off, and 23 percent are still scratching their heads. Among the entire pool of respondents, Trump maintains that 40 percent support, while Biden’s numbers sink to an even match with the undecideds at 30 percent each. Ouch, Joe.
Here's Who Americans Believe Will Win the Debate https://t.co/3JkgQex6tA
— Jane (@Jane08558954) June 27, 2024
Trump’s dominance is even more stark among his Republican base with a whopping 87 percent believing he will shine, compared to only 76 percent of Democrats who have faith in Biden. When it comes to Independents, nearly half (49 percent) are undecided, but Trump still holds a significant edge, with 34 percent expecting him to come out on top, twice the number who have faith in Biden.
The poll also reveals that 65 percent of respondents will likely be tuning in, with Trump supporters being more enthusiastic about watching. Forty percent of Trump voters say they will definitely watch, compared to 37 percent of Biden voters. The real kicker, though, is that a colossal 70 percent of voters don’t expect the debate to change their minds about who they’ll vote for, including 78 percent of Trump supporters and 73 percent of Biden backers.
On the topic of debate performance, the poll points out that Biden is seen as better at staying calm (48-31) and more knowledgeable on policy issues (43-38). However, Trump is deemed the better debater overall (43-36), and a majority of voters predict Biden is more likely to fumble over his words (58-21).
Meanwhile, Brent Buchanan from Cygnal offered his two cents, noting Biden’s high bar but also echoing the sentiment that politics is now more entertainment than genuine debate. The essence of this so-called “car-crash” debate will likely be more spectacle than substance, but it’s almost certain that media from both sides will claim victory for their guy regardless of the actual outcome.
As for the larger electoral landscape, the latest Economist/YouGov poll shows Trump and Biden neck and neck in a five-way race, both with 42 percent support. However, 41 percent of all respondents think Trump will win the election compared to just 32 percent who believe Biden will. In crucial battleground states, Trump leads the pack, and states like Virginia and Minnesota might even join the fray.
In summary, the debate will be a grand circus, filled with all the drama and theatrics Americans love. Whether it moves the needle in this tight race remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: Biden has an uphill climb, and Trump is as confident as ever.
