Staff Reports
A new University of Houston poll shows the Texas Senate runoff is closer than Democrats hoped and louder than the chattering class expected. The survey gives Attorney General Ken Paxton a narrow lead over U.S. Sen. John Cornyn among likely Republican runoff voters. With aggressive new ads and turnout as the real wild card, this race is shaping up to be a red‑measured test of who can actually excite voters on the issues that matter.
New poll shows tight Texas Senate runoff: Paxton edges Cornyn
The University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs surveyed 1,200 likely Republican runoff voters by text and online and found Paxton at 48 percent and Cornyn at 45 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 points. Favorability numbers tilt toward Paxton: 50 percent view him favorably and 43 percent unfavorably. Cornyn’s numbers are almost a mirror opposite, with 47 percent favorable and 49 percent unfavorable. On who would be the stronger GOP nominee against Democrat James Talarico in November, voters split 43‑43.
Paxton ramps up ads — the border is the battlefield
Paxton’s campaign has not been subtle. New ads hit Cornyn over past comments on immigration and the border, framing Cornyn as soft on enforcement and out of step with voters who want a secure border. Outside groups aligned with Paxton have also jumped into the ad game, escalating the attack ads as the May runoff nears. It’s a classic playbook: when the numbers tighten, go hard on the issue that lights up the base. In Texas, that issue is border security.
Why the ad strategy matters
These ads are not just noise. The UH Hobby School analysis shows Paxton supporters are more likely to name immigration and border security as their top issue, while Cornyn backers point to inflation and the cost of living. That contrast tells you why the campaigns are focusing on different messages. If you want to win a Republican runoff in Texas, you better have a clear answer on the border — and you better make voters care enough to show up.
Turnout will decide the winner — and the electorate is mostly decided
Researchers at the Hobby School noted that only 7 percent of likely voters say they are undecided. Renée Cross, the senior executive director of the Hobby School, put it plainly: the candidate who turns out his voters will determine the winner. That’s the ugly truth of runoffs. Small electorates, high intensity, and a few thousand votes can swing the whole thing. Cornyn’s path depends on convincing a lot of people who already voted once to come back and vote again. Paxton’s path depends on making the base mad enough to move.
What this means for Republicans in Texas
This poll snapshot shows a race that is competitive and very winnable for the conservative right — if it keeps its focus. Paxton’s lead is narrow and within the survey’s margin of error, so complacency is dangerous. But the campaign dynamics favor the candidate who can dominate the conversation on border security and get his people to the polls on May 26. For Cornyn, the question is whether the Senate establishment can still move voters who care more about pocketbook issues than patrols along the Rio Grande. For conservatives, the lesson is simple: show up, hold the line on the border, and don’t let the runoff be decided by polite yawns from the center. The next few weeks will tell us which side actually wants this fight — and which side just prefers talking about it over coffee.
