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Poll Shows Trump Gaining Arab-American Support Over Harris Ahead Of Election

A new poll is sending shockwaves through the political landscape just two weeks before the election, showing former President Donald Trump pulling ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris among Arab-American voters. Conducted by YouGov and commissioned by Arab News Research & Studies Unit, the survey indicates Trump leads Harris by a slim margin of two points. This surprising twist comes as the longstanding Israel-Palestine conflict has taken a front seat in the presidential race, igniting discussions that may change the fate of the election in key battleground states.

According to the poll, a whopping 87% of Arab-Americans plan to cast their ballots this election cycle. The ongoing unrest in the Middle East remains a hot button issue for this demographic. Trump’s previous administration’s policies resonate more comparably with Arab-American voters than those of Harris, whose approach seems to have faltered amid criticisms over the Biden administration’s handling of the Gaza crisis.

Conducted from September 26 to October 1 and sampling 500 Arab-Americans nationwide, the poll carries a margin of error of +/- 5.93%. Its implications are significant for areas like Michigan and Pennsylvania, where Arab-American populations are substantial enough to sway the votes. As the political atmosphere becomes increasingly polarized, this newfound support for Trump reflects a deeper dissatisfaction with the status quo of Democratic policies in the Middle East.

When respondents weighed in on which administration would be best suited to tackle the Israel-Palestine conflict, a discerning 39% voiced their confidence in Trump, while only 33% sided with Harris. Not to be overlooked, Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate, managed to squeeze out 8% of the vote. An eyebrow-raising 11% were so disillusioned with the choices that they declared neither candidate could get the job done. Clearly, the Arab-American vote is still up for grabs, as they navigate foreign policy shifts in a climate of mounting tensions.

The Arab American Institute conducted further polling and found Trump and Harris neck-and-neck at 42% and 41%, respectively. The Biden administration’s handling of the Gaza situation has understandably left many disenchanted within the Arab-American community, resulting in a split electorate evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats. Interestingly, Gaza remains a central issue for these voters, with 81% indicating it will influence their voting decisions.

However, the polls also reveal troubling statistics for Harris. While historically, Arab-Americans have shown robust voter turnout—typically above 80%—enthusiasm this year is waning. Only 63% of Arab-Americans express zeal for voting this election, with just 55% of young voters invigorated enough to head to the polls. A potential glimmer of hope exists for both candidates if they address Gaza-related policies; Harris could see support soar to 60% with calls for immediate ceasefires, while Trump could hit 55% with similar demands.

All signs point to a shifting dynamic in the Arab-American electorate that is challenging the long-held notion of unflinching Democratic loyalty. If these trends continue, the upcoming election could be a pivotal moment, pushing boundaries and reshaping the political landscape for years to come.

Written by Staff Reports

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