The concept of the “October Surprise” is as established in American politics as overcooked turkey on Thanksgiving. It’s that last-minute revelation aimed at causing havoc for a candidate just when voters are about to head to the polls. Often, these surprises fizzle out like a damp firecracker, and sometimes they blow up in the surprise-thrower’s face. A recent piece in the Washington Examiner, penned by Peter Laffin, outlines five possible surprises that might shake up the election. Skepticism is paramount when perusing these predictions.
One of the more theatrical suggestions is the potential for President Joe Biden to resign, elevating Vice President Kamala Harris to the presidency. With Biden’s health and mental acuity under increasing scrutiny, the notion of him stepping down isn’t as far-fetched as some might think. However, unless he truly becomes a statistical anomaly in the form of a political zombie, the Democratic Party seems intent on dragging Biden along, no matter how much he stumbles through his duties. The spectacle is reminiscent of a bad television show that refuses to be canceled, with the Democrats intent on sticking by their man until the last possible moment. Harris, the self-proclaimed progressive darling, would likely only serve to muddy the waters further and complicate any potential campaign.
Five Possible October Surprises – Would They Really Have Any Impact on the Race? https://t.co/oq5CjSvmtI
— Ward Clark (@TheGreatLander) October 7, 2024
Another suggestion floated is a third assassination attempt on Donald Trump. The first can be chalked up to unfortunate coincidence. The second raised eyebrows, but what if a third time proves to be the charm? Yet, it’s highly conceivable that, instead of crippling Trump’s campaign, such an event could galvanize his supporters and energize the base. It’s difficult to imagine America skipping an election, even if the unthinkable were to happen. History has shown that tragedy can often spark a more passionate turnout from the electorate. The Democrats might want to rethink the benefits of their intimidation tactics.
As for the vice presidential picks, both major parties seem to harbor doubts about their selections. While neither side is touted as a home run, the Democrats’ feelings appear to be more sour post-debate. Gov. Tim Walz has shown he’s more akin to an anchor than an asset, while Sen. J.D. Vance has been a beacon of competence and energy. The roles of running mates are tricky—they can either enhance or detract from a campaign. However, for the Trump-Vance ticket, any perceived blunders from Walz only serve to highlight Vance's strengths, effectively decorating the Republican ticket with competence.
On the international front, an escalating foreign crisis could spell disaster for the current administration. With tensions brewing in Ukraine and the Middle East and China’s aggressive posturing, any hint of weakness from Biden and Harris only deepens the crisis. The present leadership, mired in indecision and blunders, is ill-equipped to handle international conflicts. If a significant global crisis were to unfold, it could swing the narrative back in Trump’s favor. His history of decisive action and a foreign policy that frays threats rather than coddling them would be in stark contrast with the current administration’s approach.
Lastly, the mention of the Diddy saga is more of a sideshow than a legitimate “October Surprise.” While the whispers surrounding celebrity antics may play in the tabloids, they are unlikely to sway voters who are grappling with pressing economic and political issues. The Democrats have chosen their path and must navigate through the consequences of their choices, much to the delight of conservative pessimists. Ultimately, none of these would-be surprises will significantly alter the course of the campaign; the ballots will be cast, and the voters will decide, but the Trump-Vance coalition is poised to capitalize on the growing discontent with the current regime.