Staff Reports
A new Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) poll has rattled talk radio and campaign office phones in Arizona. The latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP), fielded Aug. 10–13, 2026, finds President Donald Trump’s job approval among Arizona registered voters at a net -19. That is the lowest reading NPI has recorded in the state, and it deserves a straight look from Republicans who still think Arizona is a safe bet.
NPI AZPOP: Trump approval drops to net -19
The numbers are simple and hard to sugarcoat. NPI reports 39% of registered Arizona voters approve of President Trump’s performance, while 58% disapprove, producing a net -19. The survey sampled 1,040 registered voters (923 likely voters) and was an opt‑in online panel weighted to voter file demographics, with margins of error around ±3.0–3.2 points. NPI frames this as the lowest approval it has recorded since it began tracking the state.
Why Arizona voters are souring: economy and the Iran conflict
The poll points to two clear drivers: the economy and the Iran conflict. Voters rated the administration’s handling of both the economy and the Iran military operations at roughly net -25. NPI’s CEO Mike Noble says cost‑of‑living issues — inflation, housing, gas — and the Iran situation are cutting into Trump’s support. Translation: pocketbook pain plus an unpopular foreign flare‑up equals fewer thumbs up in the Grand Canyon State.
Down‑ballot danger and local fallout
This isn’t just an ego problem at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. The same poll shows competitive races for attorney general, secretary of state, and schools chief. Democrats Kris Mayes and Adrian Fontes lead their GOP opponents by a few points in NPI’s numbers, while Treasurer Kimberly Yee holds a narrow edge in the superintendent contest. NPI warns a -19 presidential approval can create “a toxic environment” for Republicans down‑ballot. Of course, some Republican campaigns are already writing the poll off as “fake” — the default political therapy these days — but undecided voters and a close margin of error mean this is a warning, not a comfort.
What Republicans should do — quick fixes, not slogans
If Republicans want to stop bleeding in Arizona, they need more than denial. Focus messaging on bread-and-butter fixes voters understand: housing relief, clearer plans to tame prices, real answers on energy that don’t sound like a lecture. On foreign policy, explain the strategy plainly and stop pretending voters won’t notice costs or casualties. Local candidates must show independence and talk about schools, roads, and crime where people live. In short: fewer press releases, more plain talk and actual plans. Call it sensible housekeeping — the kind voters reward more than a viral rant.
