Staff Reports
Early returns from California’s statewide primary sent a shock to the usual script: U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Xavier Becerra and Republican outsider Steve Hilton were showing as the apparent top-two finishers in the governor’s race, while Attorney General Rob Bonta and GOP challenger Michael E. Gates led the attorney general contest. These first numbers, posted on the Secretary of State’s feed, matter because California’s top-two primary can send a very mixed bag to the November ballot.
Early returns and what the numbers show
With about half the precincts partially reporting, the state feed showed Steve Hilton with roughly 26.8% and Xavier Becerra with about 25.8% in the governor’s race. Billionaire Tom Steyer was hovering around 19.7%, and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco was in the low double digits. In the attorney general contest, Attorney General Rob Bonta led with roughly 53.8% to Michael E. Gates’ 41.7% in the partial returns. These are early numbers, so they can change. But they give a picture: a Republican media figure and a high-profile Democrat are headed toward a November face-off if counts hold.
Why the top-two system makes these early returns loud
California’s top-two primary does one thing very well: it forces voters to pick from the whole menu and then narrows the field to two. That means a surprise front-runner can emerge fast, and so can chaos. A result that pairs the national figure of a Biden administration official with a conservative TV personality would be an unusual match-up — and very expensive for both sides come November. It also shows how split the Democratic field is, with money from billionaire donors and many candidates eating into each other’s totals.
What conservatives should take from the early returns
Republicans ought to find some cause for hope. Hilton’s showing proves voters are willing to back an outsider who attacks the status quo. He has name recognition from media and a clear anti-establishment message. Meanwhile, Michael Gates’ strong start against an incumbent attorney general suggests GOP voters can coalesce behind a competent law-and-order case. That said, celebrating too soon would be foolish. These are partial counts and mail ballots and later-reporting precincts in California love to shift margins.
Keep watching — and keep fighting
The next steps are simple: watch the full returns, watch how campaigns respond, and expect a heavy November fight if these early trends hold. Democrats have more names in the race and more cash to throw at the problem, but that also means they can fracture. Republicans should double down on clear messages about safety, the economy, and local control. If conservatives stay organized and focused, an outsider front-runner and a credible AG challenger make California a far less predictable place in November than many expected.
