Staff Reports
The latest government numbers have a clear headline: Americans are still voting with their feet. Fresh IRS migration files and the Census Bureau’s Vintage 2025 population estimates give us the most recent, returns‑based and population‑based snapshots of who’s leaving and who’s winning. If you needed proof that people respond to taxes, crime, and run‑of‑the‑mill bad policy, the data’s politely doing the pointing for you.
The new data: IRS and Census tell the same story — mostly
Start with the sources. The IRS released its 2022–2023 SOI migration files, which track year‑to‑year address changes on tax returns and show where income is moving. The Census Bureau’s Vintage 2025 state estimates combine births, deaths, international moves and domestic migration to show overall population change. Put them together and you get a strong picture: states with lower taxes, looser regulation, and perceived better quality of life are winning; high‑tax, high‑regulation blue states are losing residents. That said, these measures are different tools — the IRS follows taxpayers and income, the Census follows people — so they’re complementary, not identical.
Where people are landing
The winners are familiar: Texas added the most people in raw numbers, while South Carolina led the pack in percentage growth. Other big winners include Florida, North Carolina, Tennessee and parts of the Mountain and Sun Belt. The IRS files also show sizable inflows of adjusted gross income into these states, which matters more than headcount for budgets. On the losing side are California, New York, New Jersey, Illinois and Massachusetts — places that have seen steady net outflow in both people and taxable income. That pattern isn’t just a blip; it shows up in both the return‑based migration tables and the population estimates.
Why Americans are packing up
Don’t get fancy about it: taxes, cost of living, and quality of life matter. High state income and local taxes, combined with heavy regulation and rising crime in some big cities, push people and businesses toward cheaper, safer places. The IRS numbers also show a “wealth migration” angle — higher earners and retirees who can move tend to pick states that treat their income better. To be fair, housing costs, remote work, and job markets play roles too, and short‑term pandemic moves have normalized somewhat. Still, when people choose states that offer lower taxes and fewer rules, that’s a policy verdict.
What this means — and what politicians should learn
The political stakes are real. States that gain population and, importantly, taxable income strengthen their economies and budgets. Lawmakers in losing states can either change course or keep watching their tax bases evaporate. But don’t let anyone pretend every migration headline is a lasting realignment — demographic mix, short‑term swings, and international migration complicate the picture. Even so, the new IRS and Census releases are a clear warning: govern well if you want people and money to stay. Otherwise, expect the moving vans to keep running — and the excuses to keep piling up.
