Sen. Lisa Murkowski, a 21-year incumbent who supports impeachment, is expected to be defeated by Trump supporter Kelly Tshibaka, who is anticipated to win by a slim margin this week (R-AK).
To paraphrase FiveThirtyEight's race simulation: Tshibaka is expected to win 52 times out of 100, whereas Murkowski will only win 48. The results of the model are consistent with those of the polls, which show that Tshibaka has a marginal advantage over the current incumbent.
When you consider that Murkowski is a staple in the Washington, DC uniparty, any prediction that goes in favor of Tshibaka is noteworthy. The projected margin of victory is barely a few points, and it is quite possible that the race will be won by a margin of less than 3 percent of the entire vote.
Tshibaka confronts a number of obstacles, one of which being the recently implemented ranked-choice voting system in Alaska, which ultimately gives Democratic voters the ability to vote for Murkowski on the second and third ballots. This presents a difficulty for Tshibaka. A recent video exposes an aide to Senator Lisa Murkowski who stated that people who wanted Lisa to win re-elected were behind the initiative on the 2020 ballot to decide whether or not to implement ranked-choice voting in Alaska.
Not every circumstance works in Murkowski's favor. Tshibaka has a good chance of unseating incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski, who inherited her position from her father 21 years ago.
Tshibaka has received three endorsements from former candidates who are no longer running for office, which is a significant development considering the ranked-choice voting system now in place. As support for Tshibaka has grown more consistent, there is a lower likelihood that votes will be lost to Murkowski during the voting process.
Tshibaka has also been quite successful with fundraising within the state. Tshibaka is currently ahead in the race for donations from Alaskan residents by approximately $20,000, which is an impressive accomplishment given that Murkowski has been in office for the past 21 years and has raised 85 percent of her 2022 cycle donations from sources outside of the state of Alaska.
To date, 85 percent of all of Murkowski's funding has come from individuals and organizations located in other states. According to OpenSecrets, only 15 percent of the funding (929,774 dollars) has come from contributions made within the state.
It is possible that Murkowski's relationship with Democrats in the District of Columbia is to blame for the shortfall in in-state fundraising she has experienced. In the past two years, she has voted nine times with the Democrats, including votes to spend large amounts of money that were paid for by taxpayers, which led to an increase in inflation. In addition, she supported the impeachment of former President Donald Trump in 2021 and has shown herself to be pro-abortion despite living in a state that is strongly pro-life.
On February 5, 2020, in Washington, District of Columbia, Senator Lisa Murkowski, a Republican representing Alaska, gave an interview to members of the media while she was walking down the Senate Subway of the United States Capitol. Today, the Senate's impeachment trial concluded with President Donald Trump being found not guilty of all charges.
In addition, Senator Murkowski has promised to collaborate with the administration of President Joe Biden if she is victorious in the upcoming election. She remarked, I'm working with them to promote things, referring to the enormous federal spending packages proposed by President Joe Biden, such as the Biden administration's inflationary infrastructure bill.
The promise does not come as a surprise. Murkowski has voted to approve many of President Joe Biden's cabinet appointments, such as Interior Secretary Deb Haaland, who has spearheaded the assault on Alaska's energy producers with two dozen unilateral orders, putting thousands of energy jobs in jeopardy as a result.
During last week's Energy Summit held by Tshibaka, Oil & Gas Workers Association president Matt Coday remarked, We knew before the election that Interior Secretary Deb Haaland would oppose our jobs, that she was out to grab our jobs, and he wasn't wrong.
And for Lisa Murkowski to cast the tie-breaking vote to progress her confirmation, it is truly a smack in the face of every American who works in this business, he continued. And for Lisa Murkowski to provide the tie-breaking decision to advance her confirmation.
The preceding is a summary of an article that originally appeared on Breitbart.