Staff Reports
A new analysis from the Center for Immigration Studies finds the foreign-born population in the United States has plunged by an estimated 2.9 million since President Trump returned to the White House. If the numbers hold up, that drop would break a migration trend that lasted for roughly 90 years. This is not a mere footnote — it’s a big, measurable reversal of what had been a decades-long increase in foreign-born residents.
What the new data actually shows
The CIS analysis looks at the federal household survey and calculates a 2.9 million decline in the foreign-born population between January 2025 and July 2026. CIS estimates most of that fall — about 2.3 million — came from the illegal immigrant population, which it puts at roughly 13.5 million now, down from about 15.8 million. The decline is concentrated among noncitizens from Latin America who arrived after 1980. CIS director of research Steven Camarota says stronger border control and tougher interior enforcement account for much of the change.
Why this matters: border security and the rule of law
This development matters because it shows policy can actually change migration flows. For years pundits and activists insisted the trend was unstoppable. Apparently it wasn’t. Regaining control of the border and enforcing immigration laws are not just slogans — they change incentives and behavior. That matters for public safety, for fiscal balance, and for the credibility of our immigration system.
Labor, communities, and the myths the media likes
Don’t expect an instant shock to the job market. CIS notes only 44% of the people in the falling foreign-born group were workers; the rest were kids, seniors, and others not in the labor force. Business surveys haven’t recorded a matching collapse in workers, which makes sense. And yes, the report cautions some of the measured fall could reflect survey nonresponse, though CIS says it found no clear evidence that people are simply hiding from government surveys.
Political fallout and what comes next
Politically, this is inconvenient for those who treat high immigration as a permanent fact of life and a reliable voter base. For conservatives who have warned that open borders corrode the rule of law, the numbers are vindication. The important point now is to lock in reforms that keep legal immigration strong while preventing illegal flows. If policymakers want to keep the gains, they need to continue strong border security and targeted interior enforcement — and stop pretending the problem will vanish on its own.
