Staff Reports
In a surprising turn of events, Governor Ron DeSantis’s position in the Republican presidential primary race has shifted to third place in the early primary state of New Hampshire. Former Governor Chris Christie has surged ahead, leaving DeSantis behind. It’s worth noting that DeSantis had consistently held a solid second place position among the GOP candidates, only trailing former President Donald Trump – until now.
A recent poll conducted by Emerson College surveyed 498 registered Republican voters in New Hampshire, revealing that Trump maintains a commanding lead with 49% support. In a twist, Christie rose to second place with 9%, while DeSantis slipped to third place with 8% support. Senator Tim Scott followed in fourth place with 6% support. The poll also showed that former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum were tied for fifth place with 4% support. The remaining candidates garnered 3% or less, while a surprising 13% remained undecided.
It’s worth noting that DeSantis dropping to third place in this poll is a significant setback. Emerson College’s Executive Director, Spencer Kimball, remarked on DeSantis’s usual position as the alternative to Trump in their previous polling. However, this poll marks the first time that DeSantis has dropped to third place, signaling a potential shake-up in the GOP primary race.
Another recent poll conducted by NH Journal further supports DeSantis’s decline. The survey showed that DeSantis and Christie were tied for second place at 9% each, while Trump held a commanding lead with 43%. Haley secured fourth place with 7% support. Additionally, 13% of voters remained undecided at this point in the primary race.
New Hampshire 2024: Trump holds 40-point lead for Republican Nomination
Trump — 49% (+40)
Christie — 9%
DeSantis — 8%
Scott — 6%
Burgum — 4%
Haley — 4%
Ramaswamy — 3%
Johnson — 2%
Pence — 1%
Hurd — 1%Emerson (A-) | RVs | 08/09-11https://t.co/w43LyS2AwD pic.twitter.com/nPiu72invS
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 15, 2023
While these polls may be concerning for DeSantis, it’s important to consider the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average of polls which currently places DeSantis in second place with around 14.8% support among Republican primary voters. Although DeSantis still trails Trump by a significant margin with an average of 54.6% support, he remains comfortably ahead of other contenders. Christie’s position in the RCP average, however, remains stagnant at seventh place with just 2.3% support.
Despite DeSantis solidifying his second place standing in the RCP average, it is evident that his support has been declining since March, reducing by roughly half. This downward trend raises concerns among conservatives who were hopeful for an alternative to the former president. It is crucial for DeSantis to rekindle the energy he had earlier in the race if he hopes to regain momentum and secure a strong position in the Republican primary.
This recent shift in poll results in New Hampshire highlights the unpredictable nature of politics and the need for candidates to continuously engage with voters and adapt to changing circumstances. As the race for the GOP nomination rolls on, conservatives will be watching closely to see who emerges as the leading alternative to Trump, and whether DeSantis can bounce back from this setback.
