Staff Reports
Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight suggests Joe Biden should seriously consider bowing out of the 2024 race, and it’s no joke. Joe’s polls are, to put it mildly, in the dumpster. It’s a far cry from 2020. Yet, some in Biden-world seem to think they’ll land in the winner’s circle just because Trump is the GOP front-runner. On essential issues, Biden is floundering, and a good chunk of his own 2020 supporters now admit he’s too elderly to be effective. According to a Washington Post/ABC News poll, a staggering 86 percent think he’s simply too old to run again. This isn’t fringe data; it’s the overwhelming consensus. Adding insult to injury, Biden appeared utterly disoriented at the G7 Summit in Italy.
Europeans, never known for their tact, have pointed out the President’s mental decline. Heading into a critical debate on Thursday, Silver has done the math, and it’s ugly for Joe. Predictions have Trump with a solid 66 percent chance of winning the 2024 election. This isn’t a toss-up, folks.
We Know Why Nate Silver Wanted Joe Biden to Drop Out of the 2024 Race https://t.co/rqgmjFOfbO
— JB (@JBRawhide) June 27, 2024
Silver dished out his analysis on his Substack, going into excruciating detail about polling mechanisms and the usual disclaimers about the potential for error. He’s clear: things are looking very grim for Biden. Even left-leaning voices note that Silver’s projections are nightmarish for Democrats, and there aren’t any substantial reasons to believe Biden can turn this ship around. Silver even dismantled the Biden camp’s heroic narrative of a strong economy—spoiler: it’s not robust at all.
For those clinging to the faint hope of electoral volatility saving Biden’s bacon, think again. A rematch between opponents from the previous election tends to be more stable, with less risk of surprise upsets. The wildcard in all this might be RFK Jr., whose run could siphon more votes from Biden than Trump, particularly among black voters. Silver is adamant: the 2024 race looks stable, and this should have Biden’s team breaking into a sweat.
Silver’s model isn’t optimistic for Biden whatsoever, projecting only a 34 percent chance of winning the Electoral College. There’s also a minor chance no candidate secures an Electoral College majority, potentially leading to the House deciding the outcome, which likely favors Republicans.
Silver’s model considers nine variables, and none are swinging in Biden’s favor. Polls so far have shown stability, which indicates more of the same through Election Day. The economy hasn’t done any wild pivots, and media outlets are so starved for news they’ve resorted to running shark attack stories.
And let’s not forget the historical accuracy of Silver’s model, which makes conservative error assumptions based on data stretching back to 1936. This isn’t just some errant gut feeling; it’s a carefully calibrated model built to expect a certain amount of old-school polling error.
The takeaway? Biden has a fleeting window to turn the race around—like the debate on Thursday. He could theoretically change strategies or even bow out and endorse someone else, maybe Kamala or another lucky Democrat. But that might be just as disastrous. The current “toss-up” label is nothing more than a convenient lie to dodge accountability.
Adding insult to injury, Silver’s not alone in this bearish outlook on Biden. RealClearPolitics’ Sean Trende noticed the same lack of enthusiasm from liberal circles, noting the anxiety and fear over a possible Trump resurgence. Liberals can sense Biden is vulnerable, even if his team remains optimistic. The reasons to believe in a Trump victory have only gotten stronger in recent months.
So the million-dollar question is: can Biden win again? Sure, it’s possible, but does he have the stamina, mental acuity, and political prowess to pull it off? With Obama or Clinton, there would be no doubt; those guys knew how to connect. Biden, on the other hand, looks more at home sniffing people’s hair than leading the nation. His team doesn’t have a James Carville-type maestro, and Biden’s lack of depth could get him roasted come debate time if Trump plays his cards right.
