Staff Reports
The Manhattan Institute’s City Journal just dropped a stunner: a fresh, author-led replication of RAND’s neighborhood survey found that a majority of Los Angeles’ street homeless say they come from outside the city or county — and a hefty share from other states and even other countries. If true, these numbers change the story from “we have a local problem” to “we have a magnet problem,” and city leaders owe Angelenos straight answers, not spin.
What the City Journal replication found
City Journal reporters Christopher F. Rufo and Kenneth Schrupp said they asked more than 200 people living on the streets in Hollywood, Venice and Skid Row where they were “from originally.” Their topline numbers were startling: roughly 64% reported coming from outside the City of Los Angeles, about 53% said they were from outside Los Angeles County, nearly 40% came from other U.S. states, and about 6% from other countries. Those results are larger than RAND’s LA LEADS “last housed” figures, which already showed a big share of people had been housed outside L.A. County. Whatever spin you prefer, those are alarm bells for the city’s shelter system and public safety.
Methodological caveats — and why they don’t erase the problem
Sample and wording matter
Yes, method matters. RAND’s LA LEADS used a “last housed” question while City Journal asked “where are you from originally,” and both projects focus on three neighborhoods chosen because they have a lot of unsheltered people. That means you can’t safely assume the whole county looks exactly the same. Still, when two different efforts point in the same direction — that a sizable slice of street homelessness involves people who weren’t living in L.A. before — you can’t paper over the trend with technicalities. Agencies need to be transparent with the raw survey instruments, dates, refusal rates and coding so the public can judge for itself.
Why this matters — migration, muddled data, and responsibility
Data isn’t just for think tanks and wonky reports — it shapes policy. If a large share of the people on L.A.’s streets are coming from out of state, that changes how you allocate shelter beds, outreach, and enforcement. It also raises the question Mayor Karen Bass and L.A. officials have dodged: are policies or messaging creating a magnet effect? LAHSA has said it stopped publishing some previous-location figures because of “varying interpretations.” That sounds a lot like hiding uncomfortable facts behind disclaimers. Angelenos deserve clear numbers and an honest plan, not excuses.
What should happen next
First, City Journal should publish its survey instrument, field notes and sample details so others can verify the replication. RAND and LAHSA should explain how their metrics line up with this new work and why migration data was moved into an annex or dropped from public summaries. Mayor Karen Bass should answer whether city policy may be contributing to inflow and present a plan to stop unfunded migration to L.A. Finally, commonsense steps are needed: transparent counting, stronger enforcement of laws against encampments that threaten public safety, better shelter triage, and coordination with other states. Compassion is important. So is accountability — especially when a crisis is being paid for by hardworking taxpayers.
