Republicans haven’t managed to snag a win in New Hampshire in presidential elections for decades, but President Joe Biden’s calamitous debate performance may have just handed former President Donald Trump the golden ticket to flip the Granite State this November.
Political strategists say there’s a crack in the Democratic foundation, especially when two recent polls paint a gloomy picture for Biden in a state typically clutching its blue blanket. A Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll conducted post-debate shows Trump edging Biden by 2 points. To add salt to Biden’s wounds, a late May survey by the University of New Hampshire gave the incumbent only a single-digit lead, a steep dive from his 7% cushion in 2020.
Republicans eye liberal bastion with polls saying Granite State is brittle for Democrats https://t.co/SRVYF9RawT
— Washington Examiner (@dcexaminer) July 6, 2024
Neil Levesque of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics pointed out on Fox News that the state has morphed into a battleground. While Trump rallies support in Londonderry, New Hampshire, voters seem to be breaking away from the Biden boat sinking under the weight of its mistakes. Biden’s decision to ax New Hampshire’s premier primary, coupled with skyrocketing inflation, ridiculous energy bills, unaffordable housing, and a brewing immigration crisis at the Canadian border, hasn’t sat well with New Hampshirites.
The Trump campaign’s spokeswoman, Karoline Leavitt, minced no words when stating that Biden’s grip on the Granite State is slipping faster than his approval ratings. It’s the perfect storm for Trump to flip this state red for the first time in over two decades.
New England College’s Wayne Lesperance echoed these sentiments, saying that faltering Democratic support, particularly after Biden’s debate debacle, has rocked the boat. Democrats, now questioning Biden’s capability to campaign, win, and run the country, may be looking at independent candidates out of sheer desperation. As Biden continues bleeding support, Republicans smell blood in the water.
Even though the Democrats boast an impressive ground game with 14 offices compared to Trump’s lonely field office, the momentum is unmistakably shifting in favor of Trump. New Hampshire Republican Party Chair Christopher Ager branded the state a battleground post-debate, asserting that the breeze is blowing Trump’s way.
The hidden ace for Biden, as Levesque notes, is his shaky support among the self-proclaimed, very liberal folks.
While just 67% of this group is on Team Biden, they might still wind up voting for him begrudgingly. But in a state famed for its fierce independence, recent wins like Republican Jay Ruais flipping Manchester’s mayoral seat demonstrate that taking any vote for granted would be a monumental mistake.