Staff Reports
The newest Unemployment Report will be out soon. For many, this news means the labor market is buzzing. Unemployment has been 3.6% for four months. One tick above pre-Covid Pandemic.
I disagree. The labor market is changing. These developments could impact our economy.
Skilled labor has long been a strength of the US economy. We're a smart, hardworking people. The historical record reflects people's desire to labor. In the 1940s and 1950s, most Americans were men. They'd bring their lunchbox and clock in each morning.
In the 1970s, demographics changed dramatically. Women started working. Housewives decreased in number as career women grew. From the mid-1960s through 2000, the US workforce grew by 10%.
The country's output rose dramatically in the second half of the 20th century, boosting our level of life.
A demographic transition may be underway.
Join me on my adventure since the Pandemic began. I've been uneasy about recent labor data. The unemployment rate is a prime example. Unemployment, as we've noted, is approximately the same as before the pandemic. The country's workforce is doing well, thanks.
June's unemployment rate was 3.6%, the same as the previous quarter. But the real number of unemployed was lower than the previous month. This pattern continued. Unemployment keeps falling.
For the unemployment rate to keep the same, the number of workers must likewise decline. Indeed. 600K fewer workers than before the Pandemic.
Odd.
Three years ago, more people worked.
I surveyed our population. 2019 had 5 million more individuals than 2020.
Population up 5 million, workers down 600K. So, fewer people are working. There's a way to measure that, as you probably figured. It's the LPR. This study reveals 1% of our personnel don't work.
Before you respond, "It's only 1%," consider that 1% of our population is almost 3 million individuals.
Three million people aren't working and staying home.
I'm unsure why.
One more step.
The Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate shows that the economy is barely operating at 98% of its pre-pandemic level. Covid was that important.
If the Pandemic never happened, today's GDP would be 2% larger.
No potential numbers are visible. Our economics is current. We see just today. We don't see how prosperous and wealthy our economy could be.
Covid was the watershed event of the new millennium. Covid changed our economy and nation. It's all in labor force data like the unemployment rate.
These reports contradict the nightly news. They show what our economy would be like without Covid.
Economy
We'll soon get the Unemployment Report. An important economic report. It's how Wall Street and Washington measure economic development. For the fifth month, everyone anticipates the unemployment rate to be 3.6%.
Non-Farm Payrolls will be released today. July's new hires. Analysts expect a substantially lower number than last month. The Street predicts 250,000 new jobs in July.
Today, the Participation Rate will be released, showing that 62.2% of the population is employed. In 2019, it was 63.3%.
Today's earnings are light. Dominion Energy, Liberty Broadband, and Tellus will report soon. Ichan Enterprises, Carl Ichan's investment vehicle, will announce earnings.
The preceding is a summary of an article that originally appeared on Independent Sentinel.
