The Final Predictions for the Election, Doom or Boom

Finally. After a little NFL football, bedtime. Tomorrow is election day.

Now what? Answers vary per person. Nevada's early vote totals have Democrats sure they'll win the senate contest. Republicans believe Mehmet Oz's late move will win his Pennsylvania Senate campaign. There are contradictory estimates nationwide, from a red wave to a Democrat stunner, and everyone who tries hard enough can find a data point to support their priors.I've been predicting Republicans' election victory for months. Still? Yes, and without further ado, here are my election-eve predictions.

U.S. House This is the easiest. Democrats cannot win the House. Even though Democrats won the 2020 congressional popular vote by almost four percent, Republicans gained seats. The GOP has benefited from recent redistricting, and even in a neutral climate, they might win a large majority.Republicans have strong House candidates in toss-up races, including heavy Biden seats in Rhode Island, Oregon, and New York. Democrats have defended all cycle.I predict at least 235 GOP seats tomorrow, maybe 240. The 2018 wave election gave Democrats 235 seats.

Senate: This is difficult. Despite the national atmosphere being unfavourable to Democrats, senate elections are famously unpredictable. Candidates often defy national trends. In 2018, Republicans lost, and this cycle's states remain uncertain. Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania—all blue states in 2020—will determine Senate control this time.I think Ron Johnson will win Wisconsin. As indicated previously, Adam Laxalt had been the Nevada favourite, but a rash of commentators have swung it back toward the Democrats in the past two days. Herschel Walker may win Tuesday night in Georgia, but a runoff is inevitable. Early voting in Pennsylvania showed Mehmet Oz gaining, but John Fetterman's debate disaster changed the game. Finally, Blake Masters is a little underdog in Arizona. He may surprise the most.With things so close, choosing winners is like picking names from a hat. I anticipate some races to break, but not all. Laxalt, Oz, Walker, Masters. I think Republicans win 51 Senate seats on election night (with a runoff in Georgia pending possibly making 52). I want more, but I need to see it. I'm more restrained than most right-wingers, but control is control. That matters most.

Governors: The GOP is unconcerned, as in the House. Republicans may not win every contest, but they'll likely improve. Oregon and New York should not be competitive. Kansas or Oklahoma may elect a Democrat, but I doubt it.Ron DeSantis will crush his Florida opponent, cementing his legacy. Stacey Abrams defeating Brian Kemp would be surprising. Greg Abbott easily won re-election in Texas against Beto O'Rourke. Republicans are taking on left-wing celebrities, which matters.

Conclusion: I still think Republicans will win this election. I trust my basics and see no need to waffle late in the game. The GOP will win the House and Senate, killing Joe Biden's program. Relax and enjoy the performance.

The preceding is a summary of an article that originally appeared on Red State.

Written by Staff Reports

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